These are based on the
choices given for the football pool I'm in. They sometimes don't include the
most obvious games, but the goal is so each entrant must do some
research/guessing themselves rather than relying on “expert” picks.
CENTRAL
FLORIDA VS
FLORIDA INTL
STANFORD VS
ARIZONA
BYU
VS UTAH
MIAMI
FLORIDA VS OSU
NEW MEXICO
STATE VS UTEP
OKLAHOMA VS FLORIDA STATE
ILLINOIS VS ARIZONA STATE
BALL STATE
VS BUFFALO
OHIO VS MARSHALL
KENTUCKY VS LOUISVILLE
SAN DIEGO ST
VS WASHINGTON ST
TEXAS VS
UCLA
NOTRE DAME VS MICHIGAN
ST
MINNESOTA VS MIAMI
OH
MISSISSIPPI
VS VANDERBILT
IOWA VS PITTSBURGH
CLEMSON VS AUBURN
MARYLAND VS WEST VIRGINIA
BYU VS UTAH: This big rivalry game is at BYU who led 16-3
early in the third quarter against Texas
but lost 17-16. Utah and BYU basically run the
same pro-style offense, which doesn't help Utah junior QB Jordan Wynn who is coming off
major shoulder surgery. BYU’s passing is 11th worst in the country in yards per
completion but Utah
is 10th worst for the same stat, so suckage in this area is evenly matched.
With both offenses being what they are, it will likely be a low scoring game
and I believe a major deciding factor will be turnovers. Due to Utah's QB adjusting from
shoulder surgery it tips the scale for me to BYU because I think they may be
able to score more, but in big rivalry games much of the analysis goes out the
window and anything could happen.
MIAMI FLORIDA
VS OSU: WHO DO I PICK??? The
best term I’ve heard to describe this game is the "Ineligi-Bowl" and
it’s exactly what makes picking a winner impossible. I have to choose between
two teams crippled by suspensions and determine who sucks less as a result of
absentee players.
The NCAA ruled that OSU’s running back Jordan Hall and
defensive backs Travis Howard and Corey Brown could be reinstated as soon as
they repay the $200 they took, Hall paid this back but Howard and Brown haven’t
yet. (Maybe someone could give them some cash…oh, wait…) But seriously, I'm not
going to discuss the fairness/unfairness of the NCAA's sentencing of OSU
players who took $200 vs the Miami
players who took major perks from daddy Shapiro, instead I'm going to deal with
what is rather than what should be…if I can determine what that even is.
Both teams' kicking game is poor. Miami
comes off a bye-week and Ohio State comes off a close call with Toledo. Miami
has five of it's starters back from suspension, Ohio State
has one. Ohio State's
special teams are not good while Miami
returned two punts for TDs last year. Miami's
QB Jacory Harris was mistake prone under former coach Mark Whipple but changes
made to their offensive system by their new offensive coordinator is designed
to reduce mistakes and boost completion. But with Harris being one of the
starters suspended for the first game, coupled with the bye-week...he's still unproven,
which is an example of the biggest obstacle in picking a winner for this game.
Then there's OSU's strong defense that could force turnovers and stop Miami.
Ohio State has one reinstated player for this game while Miami has five, but due to a bye-week for Miami these players are
unproven. There just isn’t enough data to make a sound decision and that’s why
I’m waiting until after tonight’s Toledo vs. Boise State
game to make a decision. If Toledo plays
strongly and/or beats Boise
that helps the case for OSU. But this is a toss up due to a lack of data, not
because the teams are thought to be equally matched. Sad.
OSU VS MIAMI Pick Update at 10:59 PM ET: Boise
State is up 27 to 9 against Toledo with 6:03 to
go...excuse me, 33 to 9 now. Toledo
held them fairly well the first half but while they gained decent yardage they
just couldn’t sustain their drives enough to turn them into points. I think Toledo is a decent team and that they are just a slight
notch below Boise.
To me that means Ohio State is just a slight notch above Toledo with the current suspensions in place.
In light of that I hope OSU wins, but with five returning starters coming back for
Miami vs one for Ohio
State…I have to pick Miami.
ILLINOIS VS
ARIZONA STATE: Last week Arizona State’s QB Brock Osweiler completed
24 of 32 passes for 353 and no interceptions, he also rushed 34 yards for a TD
and is ranked 10th in passing efficiency. But poor defense and missed tackles
plagued the Sun Devils against Missouri
despite a win in OT. (But this sounds like an anomaly since they were ranked 16th
against the run in 2010.) Arizona State is 3-9 on the road against Big Ten teams with a
1-point loss at Wisconsin last year and their
pre-conference season has been tougher than Illinois's.
Illinois’s QB Scheelhaase has a lot of experience and he rushed for 868 yards in 2010 and
passed for 17 touchdowns. He’s ranked 8th in passer-efficiency this
season but I'm not impressed by their opponents. Some call Illinois’s offense
“explosive” but they haven’t beaten a ranked team since upsetting #1 Ohio State
in 2007 in the 'Shoe (where they unceremoniously stomped on the OSU logo at the
center of the field post-game, but that's to be expected by a team inexperienced at
winning). I’m not convinced the Illini can succeed against Arizona State’s
defense that ranked 16th against the run last year. Illinois ranks 6th
in rushing defense but it’s the Sun Devil’s passing game they may not be
able to stop. If Arizona State can stop the run
and minimize penalties they should have no problem winning.
OHIO
VS MARSHALL:
This Ohio River rivalry has only a 4 point
spread. Marshall’s offense is ranked 104th in rushing averaging only 2.9
yards per carry, but their defense only allows 58.5 yards rushing per game.
Ohio has all five starting offensive lineman returning this year though, and
their defense also has only given up 58 yards total in each of its first two
games. I give the edge to Ohio since they're at
home and lost by only 1 point last year in Huntington. I think this is the year Solich
will get his win over Marshall.
SAN DIEGO ST VS
WASHINGTON ST: Washington State
leads the nation in averaging 61.5 points per game. San Diego State’s
tight ends had no yardage against Army last week and only two of their wide
receivers caught passes despite a 3 point win. The Aztecs will need to be
multifaceted to succeed against WSU. If Washington State can stop running back Ronnie
Hillman they should be able to put enough points up to win. I pick WSU against
the odds.
TEXAS
VS UCLA: UCLA's kicker
"Kip" is injured and they're looking to their soccer team for help
just in case he isn't able to play this Saturday. Texas has only allowed 50 yards of offense
total in their first two games, while UCLA's defense is weak. With Colt McCoy's
younger brother Case sharing QB duties with What's-His-Name Ash, I pick Texas.
NOTRE DAME VS
MICHIGAN ST: Michigan State's
defense is ranked 4th in the country allowing only 6 points in two games, but they've
had an easy pre-conference schedule. Notre Dame has lost by only 3
points in each of their first two games against better opponents and they controlled
the line of scrimmage against Michigan's defense (that was as slow as a C-47 cargo plane). But I'm not sure they'll be
able to do that against Michigan
State's defense. Michigan State
has never had a problem playing in South
Bend so that’s not a major factor. I'm probably wrong
on this one but I'm going with Michigan
State. (Michigan State will be sporting Nike Pro Combat Uni's this week.)
MINNESOTA VS MIAMI OH:
I’m going out on a limb and picking Miami (OH). I don't have time to explain my
reasoning.
MISSISSIPPI
VS VANDERBILT: I struggled with
this one, but what tipped the scale for me was Vandy's win over Mississippi last year was their only SEC win, but it
wasn’t Mississippi’s
by a long shot.
IOWA
VS PITTSBURGH:
Iowa’s QB
James Vandensomething has four TD
passes and has yet to be intercepted, and he’s averaging 213 passing yards per
game. Their defense did allow 473 yards against Iowa State,
however. Despite that I think they can hold Pittsburgh and prevail at home.
CLEMSON VS
AUBURN: Clemson ranks 90th in defense and Auburn ranks 111th. Seeing how Auburn was the National Champion last year and has an
effective offense, I pick Auburn brand tigers
to outscore Clemson brand tigers.
MARYLAND
VS WEST
VIRGINIA: I wanted to pick Maryland
but since two of their starting receivers who were key in beating Miami are indefinitely
suspended for breaking team rules, that tipped me to WVU.
Games I’m Most Likely to
Watch If I Don’t Have Anything Better to Do
This section lists the games I’ll likely watch if I don’t get
distracted by something else. I have A.D.D., so it’s not that I don’t want to
watch these games but sometimes my brain has other ideas.
MIAMI FLORIDA
VS OSU (AKA Ineligi-Bowl): Of course! Let’s see whose suspensions cost them more!
BOISE STATE VS TOLEDO: This will help me determine some things about Ohio State
and help me decide on the Ineligi-Bowl. I also think it would be terribly fun
if Toledo wins.
NOTRE
DAME VS MICHIGAN ST: I want to see if Michigan State
can pull it off.
BYU VS UTAH: Rivalries always make for good games.
MINNESOTA
VS MIAMI OH: Could be a fun upset.
Games I Will Not Watch If
I Have Anything to Say About It*
These are the games I
have no interest in whatsoever and would find more torturous to watch than
taking up stamp collecting.
BALL STATE VS BUFFALO: Zzzzzzzz….
CENTRAL FLORIDA
VS FLORIDA INTL: Not likely to keep me awake either.
*These are always subject to change because football can
be as unpredictable as a herd of cats and any game could become unexpectedly
interesting...also, I often do not have control of the remote.
Things That Annoy Me This Week
This is the section
where I talk about the stuff annoying me this week related to college
football...or not.
Miami VS Ohio
State
I’m leaning towards Miami
but then flip flop. I hate indecisiveness. I hate not having enough data. There
is little about this game making me happy right now. Even if Miami wins they’ll probably have to vacate
the win…but NCAA rulings don’t have jurisdiction over my football pool!
Ohio State
Situation I am at one with the fact that Ohio State’s
season is in jeopardy due to the suspensions. What bothers me is that an entire
coaching staff who had nothing to do with it may not have jobs next year if
they have a bad season because of it.
The End
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